Dereck,
Sometimes you & I do agree.
Myself, I am a manufacturer. When diesel hit $2.00 a gallon I did a market study(talked to target market) on making & selling bd equipment to crop/livestock producers. At the time they were growing beans, selling them & buying bean meal. The price ratio of beans-to-meal would have allowed for bd at less than $0.75 a gallon. They said it wasn't worth their time. When diesel went over $2.50 some of them called asking to buy the equipment(as proposed).
I didn't even design the equipment then. I also read the EIA data for US fuel use. When gasoline is over $3.00 retail consumtion goes down. A lot of room for +/- use of personal use fuel. I don't see the same thing happening with needed(commercial) fuel. FWIW, in MN less gasoline is used now than in 1984.
So, for the personal elastic personal use market the price has to be less than $3.00 or one is getting into a declining market.
For the commercial market, one has to have fuel that is cheaper than the current price. The commerical market is very bottom line. No matter what the price is, it is always under the $ magnifying glass.
With business one has to go with the gut feeling, but to often people mistake emotion for a gut feeling.
Martin