Re: Oil prices on the rise!

Dereckbc, you best (re)read on the Telsa roadster and the S.   You've made a few mistakes.  And overlooked or ignored a few things.

1= the point about the scarcity of raw materials to make batteries with is a big one.   The earth does not even have the raw materials to make enough lead-acid batteries to replace US ICE use.

Let alone the more exotic materials like lithium.

2= Even Telsa will tell you that range is HIGHLY variable with either the Roadster or the S.

from  www.teslamotors.com/.../specs

"The Roadster offers supercar performance without supercar emissions. Engineered for efficiency, the zero-emissions Roadster can drive 245 miles per charge. It plugs into nearly any outlet, anywhere in the world."

That's a best case of 245 miles range.   The average is more like 1/2 that.

from

www.teslamotors.com/.../specs

"Choose from one of three battery pack options to suit typical driving needs: 160, 230, or 300 miles per charge. Concerned with Range Anxiety? Like the Roadster, the Model S is engineered to plug into nearly any outlet, anywhere in the world. With the ability to recharge in 45 minutes, the car begs to be driven everywhere you want to go.

- 160, 230, or 300 mile range pack

- 45 minute QuickCharge"

Again, that's a BEST CASE of 300 mile range with their biggest battery pack.   Average is more like 1/2 that and if you have to ask how much the biggest model S battery pack costs, you can not afford it.

...and let's note that neither car recharges in anywhere near 15mins.  

45mins is called "QuickCharge" .....

....And Tesla is the most aggressive, innovative, and "out there" of the BEV product vendors.

Contrary to your statement, there are LOT"S of techical obstacles to building a 300 mile range BEV that can be charged in 15mins.   At any price.  

Add economic and materials supply constraints and it is simply impossible to replace all the ICE passenger vehicles in the USA with BEV.

And we have not even cranked through the details that show that there will never be a BEV version of an 18 wheeler, or container cargo ship, or plane, or ....

Unlike the issues that drove initial prices for computers, VHS, cell phones, etc

The battery issues are not issues that will go away as we ramp up production.  

They are issues of basic physics.

Oh Voltaire I see you still have tunnel vision, and ignore facts. Yes Lithium supply is limited. Current proven reserves in Bolivia and Chile are projected to be enough to make about 600 million passenger vehicle batteries. About the same amount of vehicles on the road today.

Lithium is so cheap and abundant right now all mines in the USA, Brazil, Tibit and other countries are shut down because no one can compete with Bolivia and Chile. Now here is the fun part you do not want anyone to know. Lead, zinc, lithium, cobalt, cadmium, nickel, and aluminum are recyclable metals my friend and used to make batteries

The only limitation to BEV range is battery reserve capacity which is controlled by expense and energy density. Energy density is not a problem with today’s technology as you can easily get a 500 to 700 mile range no problem at all other can you afford it. With an energy density of 200 wh/kg and charge rate of 4C you can right now build a BEV with 500 mile range and charge in 20 minutes or less  period... It will just cost you a bundle for the battery @ current prices of 40-cents per watt hour. In the last 5 years lithium battery cost have dropped from $3/wh to $0.40/wh and that is retail price. Today parity price with gasoline is $0.15/wh. What are you willing to bet LFP prices drop to parity within 5 years?